主题：Vertical Trade and China’s Export Dynamics
主讲人：香港中文大学 施康 博士
主持人：浙江大学 马述忠 教授
时间：2011年10月18日下午14:30
地点：经济学院432室
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浙江大学区域经济开放与发展研究中心
2011年10月10日
Vertical Trade and China’s Export Dynamics
Wei Liao, Kang Shi, Zhiwei Zhang
September 2011
Abstract
This paper examines how China’s exports are affected by exchange rate shocks from countries who supply intermediate inputs to China. We build a simple small open economy model with intermediate goods trade to show that due to the intraregional trade in intermediate goods, a devaluation of other Asian currencies does not necessarily damage China’s exports, as imported intermediate goods could become cheaper. This channel through intermediate good costs depends critically on the share of intermediate goods used in China’s export goods production and the degree of exchange rate pass-through in imported intermediate goods prices. If prices for intermediate goods are not very sticky, the effect through this channel could be large and China’s export could even benefit. We find the above findings do not depend on the China’s choice of currency invoicing between RMB and the US dollar or the choice between fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes.
JEL classification: F3, F4
Keywords: Vertical trade, exchange rates, export dynamics, currency invoicing