浙江大学区域经济开放与发展研究中心系列讲座之No.201331
主题：Geography, Institutions and Market Integration: Market Decline since the mid-18th century in China
主讲人：Jianan Li (李嘉楠）英国诺丁汉大学
主持人：徐恺博士
时间：2013年11月22日星期五下午3:00
地点：浙江大学玉泉校区外经贸楼432室
内容简介：
Abstract:
The paradox of China’s failure to industrialize despite its thriving commercialization before the 19th century has been debated intensively, especially in terms of whether market efficiency is sufficient for industrialization in the pre-modern period. This paper sheds light on this question using archival data on grain prices covering Qing China’s most prosperous episode (1740-1820) to identify the determinants of market evolution as well as the true extent of market integration. Our results suggest that China’s market efficiency on the eve of Western industrialisation has been grossly overstated, and further imply that China’s market was heavily influenced by its bureaucratic system. Our analysis is based on a historical dataset of monthly grain prices (rice, wheat) in 211 prefectures across China and we match these with new data on the physical geography of the postal and river network and mountain distribution. Our analysis first confirms the close relationship between market integration and geographic proximity but shows that geographical influence is dominated by provincial boundaries. We then employ novel panel time series methods to account for the impact of local and global shocks and to investigate the evolving process of market integration over time. This analysis indicates that China experienced continuous market disintegration with fragmentation driven by political structure. These results support our hypothesis that Qing China’s political system was not conducive to the development of the market mechanism since its primary concern was market regulation rather than revenue.
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浙江大学区域经济开放与发展研究中心
2013年11月19日